Who Will Win? Who Ought to Win?

With vital discussions raised not too long ago about whether or not (and which) new classes ought to be added to the Tony Awards competitors – Hair, Wig & Make-up? Casting? Ensemble? Projections? – enable me an unimportant one: Greatest Coin Toss, as a result of that’s what so many predictors will depend on for a season full of glorious nominees.

Sarah Paulson or Jessica Lange? Coin toss. Acceptable? Purlie Victorious? An Enemy of the Individuals? Coin toss, coin toss, coin toss. 5 forged members of Stereophonic? Get loads of change.

However Tony predictions are as a lot part of the annual Broadway custom as purple carpets and go-for-broke musical numbers. So with that in thoughts, I’ll get on with the cash, the hair-splitting and various passionate opinions. Right here is Deadline’s annual roster of predictions for the 2024 Tony Awards, airing this Sunday night on CBS.

BEST PLAY

Will Win: Stereophonic

Ought to Win: Stereophonic

Each Paula Vogel’s Mom Play and Amy Herzog’s Mary Jane have been extremely shifting explorations of familial bonds, obligations and sacrifices, whereas Jocelyn Bioh’s Jaja’s African Hair Braiding was a joyous presentation of Black id, group, heritage and, no small feat, the one biggest argument for the creation of a hair and wig Tony class. And in another yr, Joshua Harmon’s searing Prayer for the French Republic may very well be a shoo-in.

However this yr belongs to David Adjmi’s Stereophonic, and another Greatest Play winner can be one among Sunday’s largest surprises. As unlikely a Broadway hit to return alongside in years, Stereophonic is, on its floor, a intelligent, barely disguised roman a clef about ’70s rock giants Fleetwood Mac and the troubled making of the band’s masterpiece Rumours, however Adjmi is after a lot extra. A meditation on inventive temperament, poisonous masculinity (and its prices to each ladies and men), creative collaboration versus particular person genius and the sudden prices of fame and success, Stereophonic is a marvel, from its writing, performances, set and costume design to its uncannily authentic-sounding rating. It’s Broadway’s rock star of 2024.

BEST MUSICAL

Will Win: Hell’s Kitchen

Ought to Win: Illinoise

The primary coin toss of this record. Robust arguments may very well be made for the beautiful Suffs, viewers favourite The Outsiders and darkish horse risk Water For Elephants. I feel Hell’s Kitchen, the Alicia Keys bio-musical, will edge them out by way of sheer power of Large Musical energy.

However I’d wish to see Illinoise take the trophy. The mixture of Sufjan Stevens’ music and Justin Peck’s choreography made this dance-theater hybrid an expertise each thrilling and tender. Maybe an much more unlikely Broadway resident than Stereophonic, the dialogue-free Illinoise arrived on the final minute for Tony eligibility, a rousing finish to a really busy, very tiring, spring season.

BEST REVIVAL OF A PLAY

Will Win: Acceptable

Ought to Win: Acceptable

As deserving of recognition because the eye-opening long-in-coming revival of Purlie Victorious was, and as stirring as An Enemy of the Individuals is, the revival of Branden Jacobs-Jenkins’ Acceptable is that this yr’s stunner. Led by the wonderful Sarah Paulson, this story of a shattered household reuniting to settle an property (and confront previous horrors each familial and historic), Acceptable was one of many powerhouses of the 2023-24 Broadway season.

BEST REVIVAL OF A MUSICAL

Will Win: Merrily We Roll Alongside

Ought to Win: Merrily We Roll Alongside

Cabaret on the Package Kat Membership may have its defenders, Gutenberg! has its die-hards and The Who’s Tommy is beloved by the My Technology technology, however Maria Friedman’s revelatory staging of Merrily We Roll Alongside, lengthy thought of an unequivocal Sondheim failure, is as near a certain factor as this yr’s Tonys get. Maybe the best tribute the late genius composer has ever obtained.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY LEADING ACTOR/PLAY

Will Win: Leslie Odom, Jr., Purlie Victorious

Ought to Win: Leslie Odom, Jr., Purlie Victorious

That is going to be a detailed one. Jeremy Robust (An Enemy of the Individuals) is the doubtless favourite, and William Jackson Harper is by far the strongest aspect of Lincoln Middle Theater’s Uncle Vanya revival. However Odom has carried out an efficient job recently of reminding Tony voters simply how unbelievable he was in final fall’s Purlie Victorious. Like Merrily We Roll Alongside, Ossie Davis’ 1961 comedic play a few touring Black preacher within the smalltown South of the Nineteen Fifties had gone unloved, or no less than ignored, for years. Odom’s efficiency, together with that of his co-star Kara Younger, rescued this very effective play from undeserved obscurity.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY A LEADING ACTRESS/PLAY

Will Win: Sarah Paulson, Acceptable

Ought to Win: Jessica Lange, Mom Play

A painful selection, and the clearest instance of a coin toss on this record. Each Paulson and Lange have been unforgettable of their commanding performances, and both may win the Tony with completely no complaints from me. I’ll give Lange the slightest of edges if just for that 12-minutes of silent desperation that was Mom Play‘s most wrenching scene. Extra-than-honorable mentions to Betsy Aidem (Prayer for the French Republic), Rachel McAdams (Mary Jane) and Amy Ryan (Doubt: A Parable) – the latter a last-minute alternative for an ailing Tyne Daly, no much less – all of whom merely had the dangerous luck to reach in a season alongside Lange and Paulson.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY A LEADING ACTOR/MUSICAL

Will Win: Jonathan Groff, Merrily We Roll Alongside

Ought to Win: Brian d’Arcy James, Days of Wine and Roses

Groff just about has this locked, and for good motive: His efficiency as Merrily We Roll Alongside‘s self-centered Franklin Shepard was riveting and immensely likable. However James, as a Mad Males-era alcoholic desperately making an attempt to avoid wasting his household and himself from utter desolation was unmatched this season in sheer energy.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY A LEADING ACTRESS/MUSICAL

Will Win: Maryann Plunkett, The Pocket book

Ought to Win: Kelli O’Hara, Days of Wine and Roses

The terrific younger newcomer Maleah Joi Moon (Hell’s Kitchen) may take the trophy Sunday, and nobody may complain. Nonetheless, I think Plunkett, a longtime Broadway favourite, will get the win. She took house a Tony in 1987, and Tony voters would possibly properly suppose she’s overdue for an additional.

However my hands-down selection can be O’Hara, and for a similar causes as her Days of Wine and Roses co-star Brian d’Arcy James. Her efficiency as a co-dependent alcoholic mom was harrowing, her singing otherworldly.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY A FEATURED ACTOR/PLAY

Will Win: Eli Gelb, Stereophonic

Ought to Win: Tom Pecinka, Stereophonic

It’s fully potential that the three Stereophonic actors up for this award – one as deserving as the following – will cancel one another out, leaving Acceptable‘s Corey Stoll, who greater than held his personal towards the mighty Sarah Paulson, and Mom Play‘s Jim Parsons (ever-popular, however darkish horse this yr) to triumph.

Selecting one of many Stereophonic actors over the others is one thing of a idiot’s errand – they’re all that good. Eli Gelb, who performed the hapless, put-upon engineer Grover, may need the sting: His character is probably the most likable and relatable, his efficiency note-perfect. Will Brill’s efficiency because the often-drunk, lovesick bass participant Reg is perfection. However for me, Tom Pecinka because the domineering, poisonous, tormented songwriting genius Peter is the efficiency (no less than among the many males, see beneath for the ladies) that the majority will get beneath the pores and skin. Like the person who impressed the character – taking a look at you, Lindsey – he’s not the best to like, however his bizarre mixture of conceitedness, envy, narcissism, romantic pathos and musical brilliance can’t be ignored.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY A FEATURED ACTRESS/PLAY

Will Win: Sarah Pidgeon, Stereophonic

Ought to Win: Sarah Pidgeon, Stereophonic

Earlier than Stereophonic‘s arrival in April, I’d have put Kara Younger of Purlie Victorious within the Will Win and Ought to Win classes, and I nonetheless gained’t be dissatisfied if she takes the award. Over the previous a number of years she’s made an indelible imprint on Broadway, first in 2021’s Clyde’s, and the following yr in Price of Residing. She topped each performances together with her hilarious flip because the irrepressible Lutiebelle Gussie Mae Jenkins reverse Leslie Odom Jr. in Purlie Victorious.

And whereas Quincy Tyler Bernstine (Doubt: A Parable), Juliana Canfield (Stereophonic) and Celia Keenan-Bolger (Mom Play) have been spot-on of their supporting roles, Sarah Pidgeon because the Stevie-esque Diana delivers the season’s greatest. Insecure, bullied by her bandmate and lover, initially tentative in her music-making, Pidgeon’s Diana ever-so-gradually emerges from cocoon to full-fledged gold mud girl rock star proper earlier than our eyes.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY A FEATURED ACTOR/MUSICAL

Will Win: Daniel Radcliffe, Merrily We Roll Alongside

Ought to Win: Daniel Radcliffe, Merrily We Roll Alongside

Roger Bart, Joshua Boone, Brandon Victor Dixon, Steven Skybell and Sky Lakota-Lynch, each one a deserving nominee, would do properly to observe their sport faces. Daniel Radcliffe, as Merrily‘s idealistic lyricist and playwright Charley Kringas, offers a showstopping efficiency in a musical revival loaded with them. His note-perfect efficiency of Sondheim’s infamously tongue-twisting patter track “Franklin Shepard, Inc.” will not be solely a spotlight of this manufacturing, however of all the 2023-24 Broadway season.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY A FEATURED ACTRESS/MUSICAL

Will Win: Lindsay Mendez, Merrily We Roll Alongside

Ought to Win: Kecia Lewis, Hell’s Kitchen or Leslie Rodriguez Kritzer, Monty Python’s Spamalot

One other tough selection. Lindsay Mendez may properly give Merrily a clear sweep for the present’s starry trio (together with Jonathan Groff and Daniel Radcliffe), however two different performances get my vote. Kecia Lewis, because the aged musical mentor to a younger Alicia Keys was each a heart-tugger and a vocal showcase. No shock if Tony voters give her the nod over Mendez, whose character is, pretty or not, overshadowed by the 2 males within the friendship triangle.

And whereas Shoshana Bean (Hell’s Kitchen), Amber Iman (Lempicka), Nikki M. James (Suffs) and the beloved Bebe Neuwirth (Cabaret on the Package Kat Membership) had their standout moments, I’m torn between Lewis and long-shot Leslie Rodriguez Kritzer, whose efficiency because the Girl of the Lake within the under-appreciated Monty Python’s Spamalot delivered the humorous present’s funniest second together with her solo “Diva’s Lament/No matter Occurred to My Half?” I doubt Tony voters will keep in mind this present or this efficiency on Sunday, however I’ll.

And Some Fast Takes:

BEST DIRECTOR/PLAY

Will Win: Daniel Aukin, Stereophonic

Ought to WIn: Daniel Aukin, Stereophonic

BEST DIRECTOR/MUSICAL

Will Win: Maria Friedman, Merrily We Roll Alongside

Ought to Win: Maria Friedman, Merrily We Roll Alongside

BEST CHOREOGRAPHY

Will WIn: Justin Peck, Illinoise

Ought to Win: Justin Peck, Illinoise

BEST BOOK OF A MUSICAL

Will Win: Shaina Taub, Suffs

Ought to Win: Shaina Taub, Suffs

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Will Win: Shaina Taub, Suffs

Ought to Win: Will Butler, Stereophonic

BEST SCENIC DESIGN/PLAY

Will Win: dots, Acceptable

Ought to Win: David Zinn, Stereophonic

BEST SCENIC DESIGN/MUSICAL

Will Win: Tom Scutt, Cabaret on the Package Kat Membership

Ought to Win: Tom Scutt, Cabaret on the Package Kat Membership

BEST COSTUME DESIGN/PLAY

Will Win: Dede Ayite, Jaja’s African Hair Braiding

Ought to Win: Dede Ayite, Jaja’s African Hair Braiding

BEST COSTUME DESIGN/MUSICAL

Will Win: Tom Scutt, Cabaret on the Package Kat Membership

Ought to Win: Paul Tazewell, Suffs

BEST LIGHTING DESIGN/PLAY

Will Win: Jane Cox, Acceptable

Ought to Win: Natasha Katz, Gray Home

BEST LIGHTING DESIGN/MUSICAL

Will Win: Isabella Byrd, Cabaret on the Package Kat Membership

Ought to Win: Isabella Byrd, Cabaret on the Package Kat Membership

BEST SOUND DESIGN/PLAY

Will Win: Ryan Rumery, Stereophonic

Ought to Win: Ryan Rumery, Stereophonic

BEST SOUND DESIGN/MUSICAL

Will Win: Kai Harada, Merrily We Roll Alongside

Ought to Win: Kai Harada, Merrily We Roll Alongside

BEST ORCHESTRATIONS:

Will Win: Tom Kitt and Adam Blackstone, Hell’s Kitchen

Ought to Win: Timo Andres, Illinoise, or Will Butler and Justin Craig, Stereophonic

The 77th Annual Tony Awards airs Sunday, June 16 (8:00-11:00 PM, LIVE ET/5:00-8:00 PM, LIVE PT) on CBS, streaming on Paramount+ within the U.S. The Tony Awards: Act One reside pre-show with unique content material together with the presentation of the primary spherical of Tony Awards, shall be out there to viewers at no cost on Pluto TV starting Sunday, June 16 at 6:30-8:00 PM, ET/3:30-5:00 PM, PT.