Donald Trump took to Fact Social this week to launch a blistering assault on Chicago, calling it the “most harmful metropolis on the earth” and claiming it holds the title of “homicide capital.” He cited current gun violence over the weekend, noting that no less than 54 folks have been shot and eight have been killed. However whereas the incidents have been tragic and proceed to spotlight the town’s struggles with gun violence, the image Trump painted doesn’t match the details on the bottom.
Chicago’s challenges with crime are very actual, however calling it the homicide capital is deceptive at finest. In line with new 2024 information, Chicago truly recorded 573 homicides for the yr, its lowest since 2019. That quantities to about 21 murders per 100,000 residents. Compared to different main U.S. cities, that locations Chicago far exterior the highest 10. In reality, the town ranks round fifteenth in per-capita homicide charges. Cities like St. Louis, Baltimore, Memphis, and Birmingham all see considerably larger homicide charges yr after yr, with some cities greater than doubling Chicago’s numbers.
Take St. Louis for instance. Its homicide fee has hovered between 54 to 69 per 100,000 in recent times. That’s greater than triple what Chicago reported in 2024. Baltimore is shut behind with 51 per 100,000, whereas Memphis has remained one of many highest within the nation. These cities aren’t simply experiencing larger crime — they’re constantly main the nation in violence per capita. That’s a essential distinction that will get misplaced when political leaders, together with Trump, focus solely on complete numbers with out acknowledging metropolis dimension or inhabitants.
It’s true that Chicago typically leads the nation within the uncooked variety of homicides, however that’s largely due to its dimension. With greater than 2.6 million residents, Chicago is the third largest metropolis in the USA. So whereas the whole variety of incidents could seem excessive, the per-person threat is far decrease than what you’ll discover in lots of smaller cities with fewer residents however considerably larger homicide charges.
The identical development holds for violent crime general, which incorporates murder, aggravated assault, theft, and rape. Chicago’s violent crime fee is round 540 per 100,000 folks. That’s larger than the nationwide common of about 359, nevertheless it doesn’t even crack the highest 10 amongst massive U.S. cities. Cities with worse numbers embody Detroit at over 1,700 per 100,000, Baltimore at over 1,600, Houston at greater than 1,100, and even Washington, D.C., which reported round 926. Memphis topped the record once more with over 2,500 violent crimes per 100,000 residents, greater than 4 occasions Chicago’s fee.
That’s not the narrative Trump pushed. In his publish, he insisted that Chicago is probably the most harmful place on the earth, whereas touting his personal file on crime and saying he’ll make the Windy Metropolis protected identical to he did in DC. However a have a look at the numbers reveals that violent crime is surging in lots of cities that fall in Republican-led states, locations typically described as “purple states” in political phrases. Memphis and Nashville, each in Tennessee, constantly rank among the many prime for each violent crime and homicide charges. Birmingham in Alabama, Jackson in Mississippi, and several other Texas cities together with Houston and Dallas additionally present up with larger crime charges than Chicago throughout the board.
When trying on the complete crime fee — combining violent and property crimes — Chicago is available in at about 4,012 per 100,000 residents. That’s roughly double the nationwide common, however once more, it’s nowhere close to the best. Memphis leads the pack with over 9,400 incidents per 100,000. Detroit follows intently, and cities like Nashville and Baltimore additionally publish numbers far above Chicago’s. Even Philadelphia, Houston, and Indianapolis report larger complete crime charges than Chicago. Importantly, many of those cities are in states with Republican governors or legislatures, undercutting the concept crime is just a blue-state or Democratic metropolis drawback.
Trump’s declare that Chicago is the “homicide capital of the world” falls aside even sooner when considered by a world lens. Cities in Latin America and different components of the world commonly report murder charges that make any U.S. metropolis look tame as compared. Colima, Mexico noticed a jaw-dropping 181.9 murders per 100,000 folks in 2023. A number of different cities in Mexico, Brazil, South Africa, and past report yearly homicide charges effectively above 50 and even 100 per 100,000. In comparison with that, Chicago’s 21 is nowhere shut.
It’s clear that Trump’s posts are extra about political messaging than public security details. Portray Chicago as a warfare zone could hearth up his base, nevertheless it ignores actual information and the nuance that comes with understanding crime in America. If public security is really the precedence, then consideration ought to go to the cities that constantly rank highest in per-capita violence, a lot of which fall exterior of the same old political speaking factors.
Chicago’s gun violence drawback is severe and deserves actual options, however the information proves it’s not probably the most harmful metropolis in America, and it’s definitely not the homicide capital of the world. Whereas Trump continues to level fingers, the details present that many cities in purple states are going through even steeper challenges with violence and crime.
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